East Coast slammed again

From DC to Boston schools are closed today because another powerful winter storm ripped through the region last night. With up to two feet of snow being reported in some locations, New York City appears to be the winner among the major urban centers with nearly 20 inches of snow burying the city. Here is a time lapse from the Weather Channel of our nation's capital during yesterday evening's storm: http://tinyurl.com/635m5gn

Not much has changed with regards to our forecast... Warmer than average temperatures will carry us into the weekend, with our next chance of snowfall and cooler temps still due in sometime Sunday. Please see yesterday's post for more.

Bone Dry

The calendar says fall, but the weather has been anything but. Already setting several record highs (96 degrees last week), coupled with no rain in nearly four weeks, it is feeling a little more like the end of July than late September. The outlook is no different; warm sunny weather is expected through the period.

The long term forecast does not look much different. According to the National Weather Service there has been an emergence of La Nina in the Southern Pacific, which usually means a warmer and dryer winter than average for Colorado. The three month outlook recently released shows just that. So while it is not at all uncommon to see freezing temperatures and snow in September, it looks like it would be several weeks before we see either. The average first snowfall for Denver is October 19th.

Severe Drought

That's right, it has been a long long time since I last blogged. A slow summer, slow readership, and summer weather so boring you could cut it with a knife has kept me away from here for awhile.

All that said, the seasons will soon be changing, and with a renewed interest over the last weeks by many of my longtime readers, I thought I would break out the old pen and ink and talk a little weather.

After an extended period of scorching mid-90s, the National Weather Service's extended forecast shows temps peaking in the mid to upper 80s over the next week or so which will be much welcomed by many. Sunday (tomorrow) will be even cooler with highs in the 70s and overnight lows dipping into the 50s. That is not to say we have cleared any threat of extended heat waves (we will likely see upper 90s many more times before winter), but with September just around the corner, it's never too early to start talking snow!

Up next: La Nina makes a return, and early forecasts for the coming winter.

Big Changes Brewing

While the first day of Fall is not officially until Tuesday, Monday will feel more like Fall than Summer. Over the last several days forecasters have continued to lower the expected highs on Monday as they continue to tweak the forecast details. As it stands, it looks like we will struggle to make it out of the 50s, and lows will dip into the upper 30s for the first time in quite awhile. Clouds and rain are also looking likely for Monday - but it remains unclear how long the soggy weather will stick around as some models have the low moving through much fast than others. From Monday on there is a general warming trend, the exact track of the low will determine how quickly this occurs. At this point it does not appear that 80s will be returning any time next week.

It shouldn't get cold enough for snow here in Denver. Travel 20 miles west and that could be a completely different story. Looks like this cold front will bring the first blast of winter weather for the Mountains and even some foothill locations.

---------------------------------------> New poll!

Showers Return

Afternoon showers are in the forecast for the next several days. Already this afternoon the skies have quickly turned dark with some pretty decent thunderstorms developing in the foothills west of town. These storms will slowly work their way east through the next hours... Stay tuned to local media in the event of severe weather outbreaks!

The radar on the right hand side of the page seems to be having some technical problems - I hope to have these resolved asap!

Wet April - Warm First Week of May

In my blog "Time to Talk Rain" I talked a little about the soggy April we had this year. This was good news, as without it we were facing severe drought conditions. Here are some of the numbers from the NWS:
3.22 inches of precip (1.29 inches above) normal.
7.4 inches of snow (the airport picked up less than most of us in the mid-month storm, 9.1 is average).
We have received 38.1 inches of snow this season, which is a whopping 22.3 inches below our normal 60.4 inches.

The first full week of May will start to feel a bit more summer-like... Monday and Tuesday there is a chance of afternoon showers, albeit a small chance, and then we should really clear things out and warm things up. By Saturday we could break 80 degrees for the first time this year.

--- New poll!

Things Pretty Much On Track...

Things seem to becoming together for a pretty decent wet Spring storm. The biggest questions that remain are concerning the temperatures. The National Weather Service has continued the Winter Storm Watch this morning for Denver, unwilling to commit to a because of the uncertainty of when it will be cold enough for snow. Castle Rock, and all foothill zones to our west have already been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning as temperature confidence is higher in these zones.

With models forecasting somewhere between 1.5 and 3 inches of precipitation between tonight and Sunday we can expect at the very least some much needed moisture. The sooner it changes over to snow, the more accumulation we can expect. There is generally about 1 foot of snow per 1 inch of precip - so you can see how significant this storm could be. Will we get three feet if the models predicting 3 inches of precip are correct? ---doubt it. This is because more than likely we will see several hours at minimum of rain before it all changes to snow, and because the ground is so warm that much of the snow that falls is likely to melt!

With the NWS forecasting 10-24 inches of snow for Denver I would expect a winter storm warning to be issued at some point today. They do warn, and I will as well, that some places will remain a rain/snow mix longer.......................... greatly changing total snow accumulations!

Tuesday Afternoon Update

Looks like things are on track for another snow event tomorrow (Wednesday). There are a lot of ingredients that would usually hinder snow fall in Denver, but enough energy with the passing cold front that a few inches are expected here in town. Generally they are calling for 2-6 inches, with heaviest amounts in the western and southern suburbs as per usual. Snow should develop sometime during the middle of the day and decrease from north to south during the evening hours. Minor adjustments to the snow totals forecast could occur between now and then - so stay tuned.

As I suspected, models are now starting to diverge on the storm for Friday night into Saturday. Some models are starting to put track of the storm further north, which does not bode well for snowfall in Denver, while still others still point to a anther potent storm for the area. This is still several days out, and anything could happen between now and then.

Video Update!

*Live* from the heart of the storm...