Best chance yet!

For several days now meteorologists at the National Weather Service have been tracking what appears to be our best chance of widespread snow across the front range so far this season. I have held off on writing anything about it because of my personal skepticism that this will actually come to fruition, and the uncertainty that remains with the eventual track of the low pressure system hanging off the Pacific coast. After three months of virtually no snowfall, it is hard to imagine all the ingredients will actually come together to bring us a real storm.

With the system not due in until sometime Thursday, let us take a look at a couple of possibly scenarios. The first, and best, is shown to the right in this GFS weather model. The low tracks across southern Colorado, giving Denver the best chance for prolonged, moderate snowfall (depicted in blue in the lower image). Some models, however, continue to track the low further north which would greatly impede our chances at getting a good snowfall in Denver. Either way, cold air is due to arrive in a fury, and will likely bring us some of the coldest temperatures of the season. Friday's highs may struggle to get out of the teens.

Big Changes Brewing

While the first day of Fall is not officially until Tuesday, Monday will feel more like Fall than Summer. Over the last several days forecasters have continued to lower the expected highs on Monday as they continue to tweak the forecast details. As it stands, it looks like we will struggle to make it out of the 50s, and lows will dip into the upper 30s for the first time in quite awhile. Clouds and rain are also looking likely for Monday - but it remains unclear how long the soggy weather will stick around as some models have the low moving through much fast than others. From Monday on there is a general warming trend, the exact track of the low will determine how quickly this occurs. At this point it does not appear that 80s will be returning any time next week.

It shouldn't get cold enough for snow here in Denver. Travel 20 miles west and that could be a completely different story. Looks like this cold front will bring the first blast of winter weather for the Mountains and even some foothill locations.

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