April showers bring... more May showers?

After a dry winter things have sure turned around this Spring. Weekly rain and snow events have been pretty much the norm for the last several weeks, and it looks like this week will be no different.

After a warm sunny day today, cool and unsettled weather will move in for the extended period. It looks like beginning tomorrow we will have a chance of showers through Monday really... At this point it looks like it should remain warm enough to be all rain through the period, but that deserves watching. Temps will hover in the 50s and 60s with some breaks in the clouds expected. Best chances for rain may hold of until the weekend - of course.

Um, stay tuned!

Weekly Outlook

Rain and snow has moved east of the area leaving behind some clouds and cool temperatures. Picked up nearly four inches of snow here in northwest Denver, with many places reporting at least two.

Tomorrow we will clear things out nicely with highs rebounding back into the 60s. Wednesday holds more of the same with temps climbing into the lower to mid 70s! Only concern for the next two days will be the chance of some windy conditions - with fairly strong gusts at times.

Thursday I will introduce a chance of rain back into the forecast, with precipitation and cooler temps sticking around for the weekend.

Overall this week looks very similar to last week. Warm and dry... then a cool, wet weekend. Will have to keep an eye on details for the unsettled weather later this week.

Rain Changes to Snow

Rain is changing to snow around the area... Could be all snow by morning before moving out. Some places could pick up a quick 1-2 inches on the grassy surfaces and cars. Some isolated higher amounts of up to 4 inches are possible in the snow-favored areas. Here is a look at the rain/snow change over as of now:
Blue = snow
Pink = rain/snow mix
Green = rain

Hmm... Yes, could be cold enough for snow.

Well, showers have become pretty widespread over the last couple hours --- as expected. The tricky thing about tonight's forecast is how cold it will get. There is some concern that temps will drop into the lower 30s giving way for the possibility of snow late tonight/tomorrow morning. If it does get cold enough, we are not going to be looking at record breaking snow totals. Maybe an inch or two in Denver, with 1-4 in the western and southern suburbs. With the ground as warm as it is any snow accumulation should be confined to grassy surfaces... and will likely melt very quickly tomorrow.

Temperatures look to rebound a bit Tuesday as we'll climb back into the 60s.

Troughiness

That's right folks - troughiness. The next few days will be unsettled due to several troughs of low pressure passing through the state. Don't expect to see anything too significant in the way of precipitation, but the possibility of some heavier afternoon showers both Saturday and Sunday is not out of the question.

A series of cold fronts are working their way through the area today and tonight. Already mostly cloudy skies are prevailing and will likely stick around for the next 12 - 48 hours. With that, may see some drizzle and fog form tonight and will likely see temps stay in the cool 50s for the weekend. Rain/snow line will remain confined to the higher elevations to our west... all rain for us.

Next week we will warm things up again. Monday and Tuesday highs should return to the 60s with the continued chances of afternoon showers. Later in the week models diverge as another trough approaches from the west - we'll have to wait on that.

Time to Talk Rain

After highs pushing 80 degrees today and tomorrow a change is in store for the weekend. At this point expect temperatures to stay far to warm for snow, with the rain/snow line being above 7,000 feet. Temperatures will drop down into the 50s for both Saturday and Sunday with a decent chance of rain both days and Saturday night. Exact timing and amounts are still to be worked out, but any moisture is good moisture!

How about some climate talk as well...
Last weeks storm made quite a dent in our precipitation deficit we found ourselves in just a few weeks ago. The airport (where our official records are taken) has recorded 3.62 inches of precip year to date - 1.33 inches of that came last weekend. We are now only 0.09 inches below average for this time of year, with many locations in the area that picked up 3+ inches from the storm probably above average! Hopefully we will add to these totals this weekend!

Temps to climb above average...

A beautiful week in store for Denver with temperatures warming well into the 70s and maybe even hitting the 80 degree mark by Thursday. There is little active weather to talk about at this point with the exception of a slight chance of scattered showers Wednesday afternoon, and then possibly a little system this weekend. Nothing that looks too concerning at this point! Hard to believe three feet of snow fell in many locations just two days ago...

Powerful Spring Storm Winds Down

Well, let the melt begin! And it will in a big way tomorrow. After several days of snow and rain the storm is showing signs of letting up. Rain and snow showers will likely continue through the afternoon and into the evening, but they will more isolated in nature. By tomorrow we should be pushing 50 degrees again... and into the 70s next week! (click to enlarge photos).

*Storm Totals*

This was an impressive storm both in terms of precipitation totals and snowfall totals. As far as precip is concerned, here in Denver we picked up anywhere between 2.1 and 3 inches of water. Some foothill locations were well over 4 inches. In one storm many of us logged more precip than we have all year.
Now for some of the snow totals (inches):
Pinecliffe (west of Boulder): 51
Black Hawk: 36
Eldorado Springs: 34
Evergreen: 29.6 (23 of these inches fell within 24 hours)
Castle Rock: 20
Parker: 16.3
Greenwood Village: 14
NW Denver: 10.5
Central Denver: 5.5

These totals are likely to change as updates come in throughout the day.

Cold enough for snow, finally.

After hours of rain and a rain/snow mix, it's all snow across the area now.  At this point it should stay cold enough for snow through the night, the question will be if we can keep the snow coming. Snow totals will most likely be a little lower here in town because we saw such a prolonged mixed precipitation event.  Still could pick up several inches of snow tonight... 5 - 9 inches (or even more maybe...) and pick up an additional couple inches tomorrow morning.  At some point tomorrow could see the snow change back over to rain before the system finally moves out of here.  

Some impressive snow totals already being reported... with more snow on the way!

Evergreen - 25 inches

Black Hawk - 18 inches

Castle Rock - 10 inches

Zeroing In...

Take a look at all the moisture being pulled up from the Gulf of Mexico -

The winds are spinning counter clockwise around the giant L (low pressure) located in southern Colorado... this pattern draws moisture out of the Gulf of Mexico then slams it into the front range mountains here in Colorado creating upslope. With upslope, we get snow. The low is expected to stall out in southeast corner of the state into Saturday morning which will provide us with a prolonged period of snow!

Still waiting for it to get cold enough to change over to snow... Temperature finally dropped in the last hour, a trend that is expected to continue.
Here is a rough guess... most likely an incorrect guess... at what we can expect:
Tonight: 1 - 3 inches
Tomorrow: 5 - 9 inches
Tomorrow night/Saturday: Another 5 - 7 inches if the system stalls as expected!

Else the previous blog below covers things just fine for now!

*Winter Storm Warning*

As expected the National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Warning which will go into effect at midnight tonight, and last through noon Saturday.

They have remained confident in the going forecast of 10-20 inches of snow for Denver. Highest amounts will be in the western and southern suburbs, as well as places north like Boulder County. Can expect rain and drizzle to continue today, with rain turning to snow late tonight into Friday morning.

The Denver Post points out that it could also just "rain a lot".

This storm has the look and feel of the March 2003 blizzard - which I am sure everyone who was in Denver at the time remembers. That storm took a very similar path, and stalled out in southeast Colorado much as this one will - hence the prolonged weather event. As with all Spring snows here in Denver, the system will be pulling moisture up from the Gulf of Mexico as it spins to our southeast providing us with wet, sloppy snow. In 2003 enough cold air was tapped making it all snow, but much like this storm there was the same concern about the temperatures being too warm by a matter for a few degrees. Thus, although the NWS has issued a warning for Denver, we will have to closely watch the temperatures to see how much we snow we can get out of this storm!

Things Pretty Much On Track...

Things seem to becoming together for a pretty decent wet Spring storm. The biggest questions that remain are concerning the temperatures. The National Weather Service has continued the Winter Storm Watch this morning for Denver, unwilling to commit to a because of the uncertainty of when it will be cold enough for snow. Castle Rock, and all foothill zones to our west have already been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning as temperature confidence is higher in these zones.

With models forecasting somewhere between 1.5 and 3 inches of precipitation between tonight and Sunday we can expect at the very least some much needed moisture. The sooner it changes over to snow, the more accumulation we can expect. There is generally about 1 foot of snow per 1 inch of precip - so you can see how significant this storm could be. Will we get three feet if the models predicting 3 inches of precip are correct? ---doubt it. This is because more than likely we will see several hours at minimum of rain before it all changes to snow, and because the ground is so warm that much of the snow that falls is likely to melt!

With the NWS forecasting 10-24 inches of snow for Denver I would expect a winter storm warning to be issued at some point today. They do warn, and I will as well, that some places will remain a rain/snow mix longer.......................... greatly changing total snow accumulations!

Are You Kidding Me?

*Winter STORM Watch!*

You heard right - the National Weather Service has issued a winter storm watch for the entire forecast area, including Denver. The storm watch is for Thursday night into Saturday. This system has the potential to drop 10-20 inches of snow during this time period. Wow!

It remains a watch and not a warning while the details get worked out. Plenty of uncertainty remains with this system, the main one being where the rain snow line will line up. At this point it looks like it will be cold enough for snow in Denver through the period, but a slight variation in temperature will greatly affect snowfall totals. Stay tuned...

Snow?

Looking at a chance for a pretty decent storm rolling through here in the next couple days. Beginning tomorrow afternoon the weather will turn unsettled. The real threat for decent rain and or snow will be Friday through Saturday.
I'll have more on this later as the forecast starts to solidify... Just wanted to make a mention of it.

Top 10

Top 10 reasons you'll hear for why people don't read this blog:

10. I only have time to get online and do important stuff, like twitter and stumble...

9. I only ever read your stupid weather updates because they appeared in my inbox and that didn't give me much of a choice...

8. I have a life.

7. What's this blog you're always talking about anyway?

6. It's not snowing?

5. I don't know how to bookmark websites, and your url is way to complicated to remember.

4. Url? What's a url?

3. I would tell you I read Robert's blog instead, but that would be a lie too...

2. I figure if any interesting weather is actually going to happen you'll get too excited not to call me and tell me about it!

1. Your blogs are almost as interesting as your stories.

Soggy Easter Sunday

It is going to be a cool and wet Easter for much of the central part of the country today. The national radar shows this quite well - with heavy snow west and south of Denver, and rain stretching from just southeast at this hour all the way to the Gulf of Mexico.

Temperatures currently are well above freezing at 38 degrees F, and are expected to stay that way. Thus the National Weather Service still expects that any precip that does fall across the plains today to remain in the form of rain, albeit a cold rain. Right now local radar shows the rain just pushing into the southeast portions of the metro area. With any luck at all this band of precip will continue its northwest trend - and we'll end up with some much needed moisture here in the next hours.

The system is still scheduled to move out during the night tonight, with temps rebounding a bit for Monday.

Rain

A rather disorganized and weak weather maker will move across the forecast later this evening and through tomorrow. While the mountains have a pretty decent chance at some snow, here on the plains the forecast is a little less set in stone. It looks like whatever precipitation does fall will be in the form of rain here in town, maybe mixing with a little snow tomorrow night. Our best chance for rain will be during the afternoon hours tomorrow into tomorrow night. Highs tomorrow will struggle to reach 50, and if we do actually get some rain... that will be a cold 50...

The system moves out of the area by Monday with only a 10% chance of lingering showers, and temps climbing back up to the low 60s.

Watching a system for the end of next week... at this point far too much model disagreement to be sure about anything.

Dust Covers Colorado Mountains

And interesting article from CBS4Denver today. Dust has traveled from a large dust storm in Arizona and deposited in the high country. Snow specialist Dan Moroz warns this could be bad news for Colorado, pointing out that the dust and snow mix is "a darker color so it absorbs more energy, it becomes wet and it has two different problems. One is it can cause wet-snow avalanches, but it can also help accelerate the melting of the snowpack". Accelerated melting could lead to drier conditions earlier in the summer and make for a long fire season. The more immediate concern is the increased threat of avalanches - which this time of year are especially dangerous as the snow is much heavier and wetter.
The image is of the dust storm in Arizona. (source: CBS4Denver.com).

Even Warmer Tomorrow... Then a Change

No big snowstorms on the horizon, but after an even warmer day tomorrow (pushing 70 degrees F) a cold front will move through the area and introduce a chance of rain or snow to Denver tomorrow night and Thursday. This system looks all but impressive for Denver at this point, and will very likely be mostly rain on the plains (or rain mixed with snow). I have uploaded an image of the forecast during the height of the storm - and you can see that Denver is in the purple at the edge of the purple/blue line. Purple is the light precipitation... blue heavier. The best chance for precip therefore will be north and east of Denver, and in the mountains. Cannot rule out a thunderstorm tomorrow afternoon, as enough daytime heating will allow for some decent instability in the atmosphere... Thursday will be much cooler with highs struggling to reach 50 and a chance of rain or snow continuing.

We will then clear things out nicely for Friday and Saturday while keeping an eye on the potential for more much needed moisture during the second half of the weekend.

Enjoy the Springtime weather!

Radar!

Check out the new gadget! ---------------------------------->

Not a Bad Forecast

Looks like things are going to settle down for awhile.

Snow showers are in the area this evening as expected. They should remain scattered and light with little if any accumulation anticipated.

After tonight we will start to warm things up and clear things out. Tuesday and Wednesday temperatures should be in the middle to upper 60s before the next little system rolls through Wednesday night. At this point there is only a slight chance of rain or snow associated with this system...

After a cooler day Thursday we should warm things back up again into the weekend - with the chance of another little system Saturday night. This one also looks rather weak, but remains too far out to be sure of anything.

Congratulations!

I want to begin this blog with a congratulations to the 27% of my readers who did a better job forecasting today's storm than the National Weather Service.  Yep, that's right, 27% percent of you predicted 0 - 3 inches of snow for Denver - and it looks like here in town we are going to end up with about a trace.  Great job!

So what happened?  Long story short, a large dry slot of air moved into Denver late last night, and we didn't get the winds to shift in the optimal direction because of the track of the low as it moved across the state.  The storm was not a complete bust, however, as it did drop several inches north, east, and west of Denver.  Wyoming and Nebraska are still getting slammed at this hour.  You may recall my skepticism in recent blogs of us managing to get two significant storms in one week.  

Good news (or bad news for some I suppose) is that it looks like we will remain on the storm track into next week.  A slight chance of a snow shower Sunday evening, and then another system moving through during the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe, and then again next weekend.  We will have to keep an eye on the storms for later this week... 

Blizzard '09 - 4am

This is one for the history books. 

Afternoon Update!

Can hardly keep up with the ever changing forecast......................

Things look on track for decent snow late tonight, tomorrow, and into tomorrow night. Latest models have started trending back south with the track of the low which is good news for snowfall in Denver. Already seeing some rain shower activity in the area - but expect things to not really get going until after midnight. Will just have to keep an eye on snow totals (may need adjustments later) but for now will stick with 5 - 10 in Denver with snow possibly lingering into Sunday morning.

Take a look at the national radar. This shows the wet weather headed our way. The closer the lines (isobars) are, the stronger the wind. You can see that around the two lows (Ls) the lines are very close... This will lead to blizzard conditions east of town - and even whiteout conditions here in Denver.

Also - here is an image of the snowfall forecast as of now...

*Winter Storm Warning*

The National Weather Service has just issued a winter storm warning for Denver. It is in effect from 9:00pm this evening until 6:00pm tomorrow evening.

Snow should develop during the overnight hours... Heaviest snow should be in and along the front range foothills... heavy snow will move east during the day Saturday... Exact track will great alter snow totals... still looking for 5 - 10 inches in town... potentially more, potentially less!

Confidence Remains Low Surrounding Details

There remains quite a bit of uncertainty around tonight and tomorrow's storm. Therefore the National Weather Service has kept us under a winter storm watch even with the approaching storm just hours away. Would expect that if discrepancies between the models get get worked out in a way that is favorable for snowfall here in town, that we will see a winter storm warning or blizzard warning posted sometime in the next hours.

Here is the problem - many of the model solutions have the low moving north as it passes tomorrow. This means after getting some snow tonight, the heaviest snow will move north to the Wyoming line and points east and west. We need the low to continue to track south of us!

Anyway - expected rain to change to snow during the evening hours today. We then should expect some accumulating snow during the overnight hours (maybe 2-5 inches), and if things work out we should continue to get some good snow tomorrow. Many of the snow forecasting models are still calling for 6-12 inches, we just need the other models to come into agreement!

This image shows the winter storm warnings surrounding Denver (pink) but Denver still just under a watch.

A Complicated Forecast - Winter Storm Watch

I wanted to wait until this afternoon's forecast discussion was released by the National Weather Service in efforts to pass along a more definite forecast. This, however, did not help much as quite a bit of uncertainty remains with the Friday night/Saturday storm.

Much like the storm last week, a variation in storm track by even 50 miles could mean a major difference in snow totals for Denver. As it stands right now the NWS has issued a *winter storm watch* for most of northeast Colorado, including Denver. This watch calls for the potential of 5 - 12 inches of snow from this storm, with upwards of 18 inches in the foothills west and south of town. Here is the catch: if the storm ends up on track and the heavy snow expected for tomorrow night comes to fruition, the snowfall forecast could be underdone - and if the low ends up tracking just north of town, the snowfall forecast could be overdone. It is really a wait and see.

What we can expect is rain and snow to start sometime tomorrow evening, quickly changing to all snow. Tomorrow night snow could be heavy at times with snowfall rates of 1 - 2 inches per hour. This will be a heavy, wet, spring snow!

Still plenty of time for details to be worked out, so let us see if we can get some agreement between the different models in the next 24 hours.

Whew - sorry about the rather lengthy explanation!

There definitely has been no shortage of things to talk about on here with this active weather track we are on!

Oh, check out the new poll!

Snow Go...

A quick look around town shows heavy snow and poor timing for afternoon rush hour.......

Thunder Snow?

Just in case this snow ever starts up here in town - we may actually get some THUNDER SNOW out of this system. It warmed up today and there is a lot of instability!

Is it actually going to snow?!

Update...

Snow is starting to build to our north and west... Should be heading our way before too long...

*Winter Weather Advisory*

Things look on track for today's snow storm. The National Weather Service has issued a winter weather advisory for Denver County, and points west, south, and north of area. The image to the right shows these advisories (click to enlarge).
How much snow can we expect? The forecast calls for 2-4 inches this afternoon/evening, with another 1-2 tonight. We'll see. This system will likely set up similar to Monday's storm. There will be some heavier bands which if they pass over you you'll be closer to the 6 inch totals... and if they don't, you'll be closer to the 1 or 2 inch totals.

Here's a closer look at today's forecast, and why it looks so promising for snow:

There are three GFS models pulled from Penn State's Meteorological eWall. These models show quite clearly the snow moving through this afternoon, then dropping to our south and east late tonight. Purple is the lightest precipitation, yellow's and oranges the heaviest. The light blue/blue over denver in the middle frame points to a shot a moderate snow!

Still watching a potential storm for Saturday - but will wait to comment on that one for now.