Snow moves on, cold persists

For those of you who follow my blog through the winter months, you know all to well about the dreaded dry slot. Last night, after a brief period of moderate snow, a dry slot pushed in all but shutting off the snow for Denver completely. While snow finally did redevelop early this morning, it was very light, and we were likely robbed 2-3 inches of accumulation. That said, it was nice to finally get a "real" snow, and almost everywhere in northeastern Colorado picked up some much needed moisture. Here are some snow totals as of this morning (inches):
Golden: 8.6
Greely: 6.0
Highlands Ranch: 5.0
Northglenn: 4.5
Central Denver: 4.0

While snow will continue for some in far eastern Colorado this morning, the rest of us will just be dealing with the bitter cold. Current temperature: 5 degrees F. Tonight's low: -8 degrees F. Bundle up!

Winter Storm Warning Posted

As expected, the National Weather Service upgraded the winter storm watch to a winter storm warning this afternoon. The warning goes into effect tomorrow morning, and expires 6am Friday. With confidence pretty high now that we will see at least some snow, the question now becomes exactly how much. The warning calls for 5 to 10 inches of snow up and down the front range and eastern plains, with locally higher amounts. Some models still bring the low across a little further north leaving Denver in more of the 3 - 6 range. I personally will stick to the lower side for now, and wait to see how things pan out overnight. Maybe things will come together just right and we will be talking 6 - 12 come tomorrow morning.

Another mega storm barrels through west, may finally bring Denver snow too

The National Weather Service has issued a winter storm watch which is in effect from Thursday afternoon to Friday morning. A winter storm watch means there is potential for heavy snow and wind during this period.

While a watch is a step in the right direction, it would be really great to see them hoist a warning or advisory. Unfortunately too much uncertainty with the eventual track of this storm remains. The good news is, however, that models tend to be trending south - giving Denver its best shot for decent snow - and confidence continues to grow that we will see moderate snowfall. At this time the NWS is calling for 4 - 8 inches of snow for Denver, with 5 - 10 in the foothills and southern suburbs. They do caution, however, that any slight change in the storm's track could greatly raise or lower these numbers. So stay tuned as final forecast adjustments are made in the next 12 to 24 hours!

One constant in all of this is the cold air that is expected to arrive early tomorrow morning. By Friday we may be struggling to get out of the single digits for highs, with gradual warming through the weekend.

Best chance yet!

For several days now meteorologists at the National Weather Service have been tracking what appears to be our best chance of widespread snow across the front range so far this season. I have held off on writing anything about it because of my personal skepticism that this will actually come to fruition, and the uncertainty that remains with the eventual track of the low pressure system hanging off the Pacific coast. After three months of virtually no snowfall, it is hard to imagine all the ingredients will actually come together to bring us a real storm.

With the system not due in until sometime Thursday, let us take a look at a couple of possibly scenarios. The first, and best, is shown to the right in this GFS weather model. The low tracks across southern Colorado, giving Denver the best chance for prolonged, moderate snowfall (depicted in blue in the lower image). Some models, however, continue to track the low further north which would greatly impede our chances at getting a good snowfall in Denver. Either way, cold air is due to arrive in a fury, and will likely bring us some of the coldest temperatures of the season. Friday's highs may struggle to get out of the teens.

A Christmas Miracle?

Slight chance of snow tomorrow night! But, like last week, it appears this system will stay too far south to give us any real chance for accumulation. Current forecast calls for only about an inch in the snow-favored locations to out south, with a %30 percent chance of rain and snow in Denver.

Do a little snow dance tonight and hope the low tracks a little further north!

The Great Wall

System after system continue to pummel the mountains with snow. There seems to be an invisible wall that prohibits any of that moisture from making it just an hour east into Denver. While many mountain locations (especially west facing slopes) are bracing for upwards of SIX FEET snow by Tuesday, Denverites are starting to wonder if we will ever see snow again. Officially we have only seen about 2 inches of snow this season, with many neighborhoods in town not even seeing that much. While we are already flirting with the driest December on record, pretty soon we may very well be talking about the driest winter on record.

It does not look like we will have a white Christmas this year, breaking a streak of four years in a row. There is a slight chance of snow Monday (only 10%), but otherwise this last week before Christmas looks nothing short of uneventful.

Bottom line is there have been plenty of storms pushing onshore this winter but the storm track just isn't favorable for Denver. Often La Nina means not only a milder winter for Denver, but a delayed onset as well. Let's hope for the latter, and as we head into the new year maybe the mountains will share a little of the white stuff with us.

Current weather from the Weather Channel shows an incredible amount of moisture pouring into California, and will feed heavy snows in the Colorado Mountains over the next several days.